Over the last few years, drastic changes in weather patterns across the world have caught everyone’s attention. El Nino and now La Nina have become part of every expert’s vocabulary. And why not? The former has wreaked havoc on global climate since 2015.
El Nino is caused by warming of the Pacific Ocean on the eastern side near the Equator and has strong effects on weather patterns around the globe. It is cyclical but the one in 2015 was the strongest in over a century. It led to drier and warmer weather in India while some other parts of the world received higher than average rainfall. We also know that monsoon in India was below normal in 2015, continuing a trend that started almost 3 years back.
The research team at Market Pulse analyzed the effects of climate changes on demand for home comfort appliances through the year. While the demand for all products that are used to control in-home ambient temperature and humidity are likely to be affected by climate change, the first focus category was fans, that are so typical to tropical weather.
An analysis of sales of fans this year revealed an interesting correlation with changes in weather pattern arising from the lingering effects of El Nino. Winter of 2015 - 16 did not last long and the temperature starting rising earlier this year. For example, in Delhi, the maximum daily temperatures registered in February were 32 degrees & 16 degrees Celsius compared with 26 degrees and 12degrees Celsius in 2015. As a result, summer sale of fans was advanced and sales in February ballooned by 19%. Sales in North zone alone grew by 32% while East registered a 44% increase in sales.
Global temperature in January – August, 2016, has been at the highest level for over a 100 years. Sales of fans in India has grown appreciably by 9% in the first 9 months of the calendar year in the face of a sluggish economy. We expect increasing urbanization and continued rise in temperature to keep the fans market buoyant over the next 5 years. According to a few retailers whom I met in Hyderabad, removal of the green cover, due construction of flyovers and the metro lines, is another contributory factor for the increase in average temperature.
Hotter weather coupled with extended dry periods are also boosting demand for room coolers, particularly in the middle income households.
On the flip side, some categories such as water heaters and room heaters are feeling the heat. As per the latest forecast by leading online weather portals, the average temperature in November in North India (particularly Delhi) will be higher than the previous year by at least 2 degrees Celsius and in December by 1degree. Accordingly, we expect sales growth for water heaters to be muted this year, too. However, from the winter of 2017 – 18, the growth of Arctic ice which has already started, will start pushing down the global temperatures. Don’t forget to plan a push in the room heaters market then.
Data sources: Global Weather Oscillations, USA, leading online meteorological portals and Market Pulse Retail Metrics.
El Nino is caused by warming of the Pacific Ocean on the eastern side near the Equator and has strong effects on weather patterns around the globe. It is cyclical but the one in 2015 was the strongest in over a century. It led to drier and warmer weather in India while some other parts of the world received higher than average rainfall. We also know that monsoon in India was below normal in 2015, continuing a trend that started almost 3 years back.
The research team at Market Pulse analyzed the effects of climate changes on demand for home comfort appliances through the year. While the demand for all products that are used to control in-home ambient temperature and humidity are likely to be affected by climate change, the first focus category was fans, that are so typical to tropical weather.
An analysis of sales of fans this year revealed an interesting correlation with changes in weather pattern arising from the lingering effects of El Nino. Winter of 2015 - 16 did not last long and the temperature starting rising earlier this year. For example, in Delhi, the maximum daily temperatures registered in February were 32 degrees & 16 degrees Celsius compared with 26 degrees and 12degrees Celsius in 2015. As a result, summer sale of fans was advanced and sales in February ballooned by 19%. Sales in North zone alone grew by 32% while East registered a 44% increase in sales.
Global temperature in January – August, 2016, has been at the highest level for over a 100 years. Sales of fans in India has grown appreciably by 9% in the first 9 months of the calendar year in the face of a sluggish economy. We expect increasing urbanization and continued rise in temperature to keep the fans market buoyant over the next 5 years. According to a few retailers whom I met in Hyderabad, removal of the green cover, due construction of flyovers and the metro lines, is another contributory factor for the increase in average temperature.
Hotter weather coupled with extended dry periods are also boosting demand for room coolers, particularly in the middle income households.
On the flip side, some categories such as water heaters and room heaters are feeling the heat. As per the latest forecast by leading online weather portals, the average temperature in November in North India (particularly Delhi) will be higher than the previous year by at least 2 degrees Celsius and in December by 1degree. Accordingly, we expect sales growth for water heaters to be muted this year, too. However, from the winter of 2017 – 18, the growth of Arctic ice which has already started, will start pushing down the global temperatures. Don’t forget to plan a push in the room heaters market then.
Data sources: Global Weather Oscillations, USA, leading online meteorological portals and Market Pulse Retail Metrics.
